The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair was trading higher for most of the day on Friday, October 23. This is exactly what we talked about this morning. The pair needed to adjust to resume the downward movement later. Likely, a downward trend has also formed now, as the quotes once again failed to overcome the level of 1.1900 over the past three months, which is still the upper limit of the side channel. An eloquent downward turn was made on the way to this level. Thus, the trend is now characterized by a downward trend. Therefore, a new reversal of the MACD indicator down, which may happen in the next few hours, can be regarded as a signal for sales. In general, we have repeatedly drawn the attention of novice traders to the fact that the euro/dollar pair continues to trade mainly inside the side channel. Thus, if the upper line could not be overcome, respectively, there is a high probability of going down to the lower border of this channel. Therefore, we expect a drop to the level of 1.1696.
On Friday, there was once again very little important news in the European Union and America. Last night, the final round of debates between President Donald Trump and presidential candidate Joe Biden took place in the United States. That night, the US dollar rose by about 30 points, however, it began to fall sharply against the euro in the morning. We can only highlight the indices of business activity in the service sectors of the European Union and some of its countries. For example, in Germany, business activity in the service sector declined further to 48.9 points. Recall that any value below 50.0 is considered negative and means a decline in the sector. In the European Union as a whole, the indicator of business activity in the service sector and the composite index went below the 50-point mark. Thus, the European indicator of business activity is declining faster than the German and only the service sector is declining. This is not surprising. It is the service sector that is suffering the most from the pandemic and the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the spread of the virus. What is remarkable here is the fact that business activity is falling, which means that the EU economy itself should be expected to shrink or slow down. But in the United States, all three business activity indices remain above the mark of 50.0, so the American economy has nothing to worry about yet if only these indicators are taken into account. Unemployment is falling. Thus, although the virus continues to spread in America, business activity overseas is still in order. Accordingly, the strengthening of the US currency to 1.1700 becomes even more likely.
On October 23, the following scenarios are possible:
1) Purchases of the EUR/USD pair have ceased to be relevant at the moment since the price is fixed below the ascending trend line. The previous local maximum (1.1867) price also failed to breakthrough today. Thus, it is recommended for novice traders to resume trading for an increase after the formation of a new upward trend or the refraction of a downward one, which is still not expected during the current day.
2) Novice traders are recommended to trade on the downside. The pair corrected during the day, and the MACD indicator was discharged, so you can expect a sell signal from the MACD today. In this case, we recommend opening new short positions with targets of 1.1796 and 1.1776.
What is on the chart:
Price support and resistance levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator(14,22,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period.