Yesterday, the Australian dollar made a false exit over the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel and the correction level of 38.2% (61.8% on the daily chart), which strengthened the potential for its own fall. With overcoming the support of the MACD line at 0.6875, we are waiting for the price on the line of the price channel at 0.6816, near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. The Marlin oscillator has shown a qualitative downward reversal from the boundary of the growth territory.
On a four-hour chart, yesterday’s jump in prices formed a reversal convergence. Price is developing on the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator does not dare to go to the territory of the bears.
A constraining factor was today’s data on the Chinese economy: GDP for the fourth quarter showed the expected 6.0%, industrial production in December increased by 6.9% YOY against the expectation of 5.9% YOY, growth in investment in fixed assets increased from 5.2% YOY to 5.4% YOY. Retail sales were at November 8.0% YOY against forecasts of a decline to 7.9% YOY. Now it’s up to US data on industrial production and construction. And since this week business activity indicators in New York and Philadelphia turned out to be better than expected, there are likelihood of better data on Industrial Production. The forecast is not very optimistic: -0.2/0.0%.