Work in the current phase of correction involves the search for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. The 1/2 WCZ of 109.98-109.89 will be the determining resistance. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the bearish momentum will continue with a probability of 70% and update the May low. This must be used to enter a position or to keep sales already open.
Within the 1/2 WCZ, there is a significant level and above which, one could observe an accumulation of limit orders last week. The test of this range should be used to search for the “false probe” pattern.
To change the downward impulse to a bullish one, it will be necessary to close today’s trading above 109.98. This will lead to a change in the market phase. The goal of growth will be the weekly CZ of 110.94-110.77 and the probability of the movement will increase to 70%. Do not forget that while this model is auxiliary and the probability of its implementation does not exceed 30%.
Daily CZ – daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.